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‘Odd’: Enrollment dropping though other factors up
by Gregory R. Norfleet · News · January 28, 2016


In five years, five key factors of a healthy school district all show signs of improvement. But a sixth — the most important to school revenues — shows decline: Enrollment.


A new study shows that by 2021, certified enrollment — which drives state funding — at West Branch Community Schools may drop by 4.3 percent, or 32 pupils, to 734 pupils.

Iowa School Finance Information Services’ David Gaus told the West Branch Board of Education on Jan. 11 that “this is one of the oddest studies I’ve done.”

“There’s so much good going on,” he said. “Why the decline?”

Here is what is going up:

• The number of pupils outside the school district yet open-enrolling in West Branch: up 52.2 percent — from 11 in 2015-16 to 21 in 2021

• The school district’s childbearing population: up 2.3 percent — to 1,597 women by 2021

• The live birth rate per county: up 6.3 percent — to 69 live births annually by 2021

• Housing units: up 3.7 percent — an increase of 82 units to 2,194 in 2021

• Employment: up 5.8 percent — an increase in 191 positions to 3,284 in 2021

Gaus said the ISFI believes “what happens in the near past will continue in the near future,” so the report reflects recent trends.

He said one important factor dragging down enrollment projections is the slow growth in “affordable housing” — those in the $180,000 to $250,000 range — yet “not government housing.”

The report is better news for the economy, he said.

“You’re not losing jobs,” he said. “You’ve got good things going on economically.”

Board member Mike Owen said housing figures have a greater impact on enrollment than job numbers, and Gaus agreed.

Gaus said fewer millennials are buying homes and more are renting and commuting, so Iowa City may draw them away.

“More townhomes and apartments (here) will boost enrollment,” he said.

Owen said West Branch does not lack rentals, and he noted that the young Meadows subdivision and the new Cookson subdivision should help the housing shortage.

City Administrator Matt Muckler, who attended the meeting, said there are more opportunities for housing growth north of Pedersen Valley park.

“A lot of people out of town think West Branch should grow soon,” Superintendent Kevin Hatfield said.

Board member Julie Sexton said more people will want to move to town once the city builds a community center, a planned project still possibly several years away.

“I’m encouraged by what Matt said,” Owen added. “This will probably not change much in five years, but we plan for 15 to 20 years. I think this is a temporary situation.”